It’s horrible isn’t it? You find yourself reconciled with the journeyman player you were fed up with and find that, actually, he isn't too bad after all.
And then he leaves.
We are seeing quite a few departures at West Bromwich Albion right now.
By the time I’ve finished this sentence, both Conor Townsend and Brandon Thomas-Asante might have clocked out for the final time – Okay Yokuslu already has.
The merits or otherwise of these departures, along with the arrival of Devante Cole, are subjective impulses. That’s for another time; another conversation.
But what we are seeing at Albion right now isn’t being done through choice.
It is a necessity.
A dive into social media comments just a few days ago shows just how many seem oblivious to the predicament the club finds itself in.
As a reminder, here is confirmation from Shilen Patel that we lost £11m in our last financial cycle, for the 2022/23 season. He told us - in honest and stark terms - that it would be worse in the next cycle of accounts
When the next accounts come out, some time next Spring, I fully expect to see a loss of about £23m at best. In the worst case scenario it could be about £2-3m more (taking into account various variables that cannot be accounted for without a forensic knowledge of each and every contract, loan, liability).
Let’s take the scenario of £34m being the loss for the two seasons overall.
What I haven’t included above is the £3m annual costs that go towards the academy costs, as they’re not included within the Profit and Sustainability Rules.
So, let’s call it £28m, at best. (And don't forget investment into infrastructure isn't included either...)
The 2024/25 season is now in that ‘third’ year of the cycle. Those accounts will follow in about 18 months time. Based on the figures above, we will be running close to the £39m permitted within the Profit and Sustainability Rules. I don't think we'll exceed those, but I appreciate why contingencies are being pushed through to ensure we don't.
This is exactly why we are seeing the departures of players who can be sold for a fee before their values tank in the final year of their contract. It is also why we are shedding the high earners and those who represent a significant profit – BTA, for instance, who signed for about £300,000, but is likely to go for about £3m, minus the bit owed to Salford.
I'm going to estimate that the saving on wages of the three players mentioned above - BTA, Townsend and Yokuslu - will be in the region of £3.5m over the course of the year. That figure will be chewing into our inevitable debt, not to mention any transfers fees we get on top of that or any other outgoing deals before/after.
There is also good reason why Grady Diangana (injured anyway) and Karlan Grant are unlikely to be sold any time soon. Their current values are the equivalent of negative equity – we would be making a huge loss, unless clubs offered us silly money.
And, so, to the future.
Who comes in? I’ll leave that in the hands of others, but I suspect we will have a fairly modest budget. But, and this is important too, ignore reports that state we have £Xm to spend… clubs don't operate to such parameters.
Clubs invest in wages over a period of any player's contract, and, where applicable, spread any transfer fee over the duration of that term. It’s a way of kicking the can down the road. But that's fine. It's how it works.
That’s good news in many respects as we can spread any transfer fees/wages over several years. But it does mean we’ll have to be patient.
Our cost-adjustments mean we will probably flex down towards the middle bracket of wage-payers in the Championship. That means we might need to wait a bit longer for the players we want, while those with greater means sort out their own squads.
Remember: our current predicament is all down to the actions of the previous owner - not the current one, who has at least taken control of the situation. Shilen Patel isn't the bad guy here.
We will get there. It might take a while, and we might not quite be ready for the start of the season.
But let’s judge the window come the first day of September, not based on the opening throes of August.
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